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Energy prices - gone nuts.

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What sort of drop can you make out of it?
Purely for experimenting, obviously.
There is costs in building up s headstock at the top of your upstream, then the turbine house at the bottom.
Can all be justified as flood prevention work ;)
 
Calimori said:
What sort of drop can you make out of it?
Purely for experimenting, obviously.
There is costs in building up s headstock at the top of your upstream, then the turbine house at the bottom.
Can all be justified as flood prevention work ;)
Click to expand...
Yup that’s just free power running past the house every day!
 
I was looking at buying a shut down trout farm small holding locally a few years ago, it was fed from a river next to it. Open the sluice gate and a whole load of water runs through to feed the ponds. It had an Archimedes screw to lift the water to some ponds which I had never seen before and looked pretty cool.

I was thinking then that would be great to generate electricity but the water had to run through a bit of another farmers land first and he wanted silly money for the privilege per year and had you by the balls so decided against it😏

That could have produced quite a bit of power most of the time with the amount of rain here filling the rivers.

I would be up for a bit of hydropower if I could but no chance of that here or flooding thank god.
 
Calimori said:
We seem to be repeating a lot of old chats already had in the previous 58 pages, probably because it is tough to go back and find it.

I have just managed to find @JT. opportunity cost calculator (end of page 40). There are few things that jumped out 6 months later that could be worth refining. Please call out anything I have missed or got wrong. I am doing this not to prove others are wrong but to challenge my own thoughts.
  1. The assumption of obsoletion at 10 year, as you say it may be as good as any time frame we can find but there are loads still working fine, and we have heard of some with small costs for new inverters. Any cumulative interest would also continue to rise as the investment may need some additional servicing.
  2. Tax on interest/earnings/investment/savings (Basic-rate taxpayers can earn £1,000/year tax-free and higher-rate taxpayers £500 for savings)
    1. We have to assume the person has not other savings that they have used their allowance on
  3. We are at high rates of inflation relative to the last 10 years, they may continue to rise, they may fall
    1. Another quick search and normal people like me can get risk free returns at 5.12% but this is limited to £5,000
    2. 3.05% is the highest high street bank backed savings account for the £10995 pot we talked about last August
    3. The prediction was for the rate to hit 2.85% and rise up to 8.85% by year 4.
      1. I read about current estimates for it to raise another .5 and then stay that way
    4. Over the 10 year period, there is a risk that the interest rates do not rise and the return expected is not met
    5. However, other events may keep the unprecedented levels higher, we can't predict past a point in the future
  4. We are at high unprecedented high costs of energy relative to the last 10 years, they may continue to rise, they may fall
    1. We absolutely have to be realistic that the cost of electricity will come down and any 'return from investment' will also reduce
      1. Current predictions are it will drop from ~£0.36 to £0.32 but may then fall further
      2. There is a risk that the cost of electricity will fall and the below table will be inaccurate
    2. However, other events may keep the unprecedented levels higher, we can't predict past a point in the future

Most of the above requires some assumptions and all points have risks that in realised will mean none of these figures are accurate. But running it again based on interest rates rising and energy prices falling a little further.
Feb 2023

Units generatedunit priceValue of Generation
1​
10995​
313.3575​
2.85%​
5157.6​
0.36​
1856.736​
2​
11308.3575​
344.904904​
3.05%​
5157.6​
0.32​
1650.432​
3​
11653.2624​
413.690815​
3.55%​
5157.6​
0.28​
1444.128​
4​
12066.9532​
428.376839​
3.55%​
5157.6​
0.28​
1444.128​
5​
12495.3301​
443.584217​
3.55%​
5157.6​
0.28​
1444.128​
6​
12938.9143​
459.331457​
3.55%​
5157.6​
0.28​
1444.128​
7​
13398.2457​
475.637723​
3.55%​
5157.6​
0.28​
1444.128​
8​
13873.8835​
492.522863​
3.55%​
5157.6​
0.28​
1444.128​
9​
14366.4063​
510.007424​
3.55%​
5157.6​
0.28​
1444.128​
10​
14876.4137​
528.112688​
3.55%​
5157.6​
0.28​
1444.128​
Total
15060.192​

Summary
  1. The total lost opportunity cost is 35% over 10 years based on these figures, not 100%
  2. The figures are near enough close to a draw over 10 years with no other investment
  3. If the system needs no further investment past year 10, it will be making a clear return of investment
  4. If you have other savings earning you interest, then Solar may be a better way to use the money
  5. If you can also take advantage of a cheaper energy tariff because of your set up, then solar may be a better use of the money
    1. off peak charging for example
Please point out mistakes so I can correct them.
Click to expand...
I'm not sure if I understand everything in this correctly, but I remember doing the analysis myself that it's hard to word everything totally unambiguously/get the message across, so that's not a criticism at all. For the summarised points though, I think there is a bias towards putting a positive sheen on this, that they are open to reasonable counter-challenges, that they open up ambiguity in the overall message/over-complicate, but don't really add anything useful to the central message.

For example, summary point 3: one could counter that if the system breaks down on its 10-year anniversary date (which, if they adhere to the manufacturer's planned-obsolescence design, they should do), you will be left with a multi thousand-pound bill to remove and dispose of a potentially house-devaluing eyesore. Taking this point further, one could argue that the devaluing of the house begins before year 10 (e.g. given a choice between a house with a 9-year-old solar system on the roof, and one without, I'd personally pick the house without). One could also observe that many of the companies fitting the systems and giving 10-year warranties won't be around in 10 years, many in 5 years, some next year - so there is a big question mark over the value of the warranty, and whether additional costs might actually crop up in the system's lifetime.

On point 4, which, if I understand rightly, is based mainly on the earlier point about tax on savings for those with large amounts of savings: there are several tax-efficient forms of savings that could negate this point - an ISA or a pension are obvious ones. Investments in physical high value assets like a value-appreciating vintage watch is another example (or a pinball machine even).
Another alternative, which would affect anyone with a mortgage, is that paying down the capital/reducing the term on their mortgage will likely blow any other 'investment' out of the water. Whilst, as Neil observed, there are probably worse things to invest in than solar panels (crypto apparently), there are many, many alternatives that are better. Solar panels wouldn't make my top 100 things to invest in.

If point 4 was actually meant in relation to inflation: for people who have a lot of money in savings, and concerns about guarding against inflation, then investing in gold is often used as a hedge against that scenario, but there are many commonly used alternatives. Again, solar panels wouldn't make my top 100 list for guarding against inflation.


I'm sure I could come up with perfectly valid and rational counter-points for all these scenarios pretty easily, but it's pointless imo - it's getting into so much detail and complexity around multiple scenarios that we can't hope to predict, that the whole exercise starts to become worthless.

I think the salient point, the only one of value in relation to finances imo, is that for the average person, based on what seem like reasonable assumptions today, there is no financial return on solar panels as an investment - breakeven is the likely case. The only qualification to that which I think might be useful is that paying over the odds (like the £20-25k quote mentioned previously) would likely result not only in no return on investment, but actually in flushing thousands, perhaps a five-figure sum, down the toilet (anyone considering this would be well-advised to do the maths in detail).
 
We agree on a few things, which is always good.
  1. Each person's situation is complex and likely requires its own set of assumptions
  2. We can't predict a lot of what is going to happen over time
  3. There are better ways to invest, all investments carry some risks that they may not perform as expected
I agree I have a more positive view of solar technology and from my viewpoint, I feel yours is a too negative. I am sure the reality is somewhere between us.
I spend a lot of time threat modelling for risk assessments. I am sure to have missed something here but I do believe solar technology has an ability to be serviceable past the 10 year point, and no single point of failure would occur that wasn't serviceable:
  • Solar panels:
    • Single panel failure should not impact others from working, just degrade output
    • Mine have a 25 year guarantee from LG (not installer)
      • Whilst LG have stopped making new panels, they will backed the guarantee with spares and then payout
      • 0.25% annual degradation as part of the warranty
  • Wiring
    • Wire should not fail and can be replace, most is external or internal to the loft space
    • The parts hardest to get to are a concern, such as the string from the optermisers
  • Inverter
    • Easily accessible and most likely to fail
    • Cost of replacement <£800
      • Most likely failure point and accepted risk (impact low)
  • Possible micro inverters or optermisers
    • Would result in a single panel failing
    • Backed by 25 year guarantee
  • Optional Batteries, which will degrade or fail in different ways
    • Warranty 10 years
      • Tesla may go bust
        • Risk increases every day Elon remains tweeting
    • Most likely scenario is slow degradation of storage
    • If failure, easily accessible cost of replacement medium (impact medium)
      • Replacement parts will get cheaper and more efficient
I do not believe a near 10 year old system would devalue a house to those bought into the technology, all bet are off for folks who don't appreciate it.
 
PAX said:
Anyone know what April's price hike in fuel costs is likely to be?
Click to expand...

At a rough guess i would say about 20% increase if the goverment guarantee rises to £3000 from £2500 per year average that they have said was planned.

I doubt the wholesale/Ofgem Price cap will be any lower than that by then, its currently at £4279 average as of 1st Jan.
 
Just for info regarding solar panels. I'm at 11 years in with my system, there has been no obvious degradation in production rates from the panels over the course of those 11 years, they paid for themselves in 4 years

I thought about fitting batteries but as we're moving in the next 5 years, I figured there's probably no point
 
Calimori said:
I agree I have a more positive view of solar technology and from my viewpoint I feel yours is a too negative.
Click to expand...
I have an incredibly positive view of the tech tbh - the reason I did the maths in the first instance was to try and justify the investment for myself rather than to knock it back. But if the simple maths doesn't add up, then it doesn't add up ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

If it reaches the point of paying for itself within 5 years though, then I'll be all over it - and hopefully it'll reach that point in the near future. As I mentioned in another post, I'd hope that subsidising solar will be part of Labour's green policies when they flesh out the detail of their plans. They're committed to hitting emissions targets and creating green jobs, so all those new green employees will hopefully be spending their time fitting subsidised panels (to my house)!
 
And on this, we are largely agreeing. The initial outlay must include compound interest to truly work out the payoff point. And it is more likely to be at the 10 year point where many warranties will expire and some re-investment may be required.
 
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at a more managable size..... I used to have a single solar panel on the roof of my old Gamesroom, via a charge controller, feeding 2x leisure batteries... through a switch to my 12v lighting system. This was around 6-7 years ago... and worked really well.. none of this tesla and inverter stuff :D
 
Calimori said:
What sort of drop can you make out of it?
Purely for experimenting, obviously.
There is costs in building up s headstock at the top of your upstream, then the turbine house at the bottom.
Can all be justified as flood prevention work ;)
Click to expand...
The burn drops twice as it makes its way through garden could excavate a 0.8m..1m drop but this is not my wheel house 🙂
 
PAX said:
have absolutely no idea how that's possible
Click to expand...
It's about £28 - £30 a day split about 40% electricity and 60% gas. The worse thing is we only have the heating on a couple of hours in the morning and roughly 4 in the evening. Boiler is a 31kw and my gas is over 10p per kWh.

Using the same amount and sometimes less than 2 years ago but rate is over 4 times higher.

House is well insulated as just finished a renovation and we have a wood burner. Working from home probably explains the electricity usage but still **** loads of money
 
Tucks said:
It's about £28 - £30 a day split about 40% electricity and 60% gas. The worse thing is we only have the heating on a couple of hours in the morning and roughly 4 in the evening. Boiler is a 31kw and my gas is over 10p per kWh.

Using the same amount and sometimes less than 2 years ago but rate is over 4 times higher.

House is well insulated as just finished a renovation and we have a wood burner. Working from home probably explains the electricity usage but still **** loads of money
Click to expand...
Have you chexked your hot water boiler settings? Ours needs 27 minutes to be hot and the bozos who installed it from BG had it set to three hours twice a day.
 
Yeah. On same time as heating for 1 hour in the morning and 1 hour in the evening only. Megaflow system. Nest installed. Just think it's a case of very expensive gas.
 
Tucks said:
It's about £28 - £30 a day split about 40% electricity and 60% gas. The worse thing is we only have the heating on a couple of hours in the morning and roughly 4 in the evening. Boiler is a 31kw and my gas is over 10p per kWh.

Using the same amount and sometimes less than 2 years ago but rate is over 4 times higher.

House is well insulated as just finished a renovation and we have a wood burner. Working from home probably explains the electricity usage but still **** loads of money
Click to expand...
Keep the heating off if just you home and have a 200w heater next to you :D
 
I have been testing infrared heaters and they are great to warm you and not the air. Castle Heaters do one with 9 staged power settings up to 2kW so it steps up by 222W for each setting. Instant localised heat, or enough to warm up the space eventually. These are not so good on room temperature controlled electric circuits and they take longer to heat the air.
 
Calimori said:
I have been testing infrared heaters and they are great to warm you and not the air. Castle Heaters do one with 9 staged power settings up to 2kW so it steps up by 222W for each setting. Instant localised heat, or enough to warm up the space eventually. These are not so good on room temperature controlled electric circuits and they take longer to heat the air.
Click to expand...
Yeah it’s what I do as I’m only home in day, little 200w halogen heater next to my desk does the job. Just runs off the panels as well which is a bonus.
 
Hi Y'all

Energy smart meters, yes or no and what questions should i ask my provider that is offering to fit them? Any types to avoid?

Cheers

JB
 
Yes for sure get one and go for SMETS2 only, if they are installing anything else point blank refuse it.

Neil.
 
Just had a great chat with the British Gas Chat - it said it was a real person - Martyn - not so sure: - my colouring

Hi Michael, What can I help you with today?
Michael (14/02/2023, 16:38:36): My recent bill does not nearly reflect my usage
Michael (14/02/2023, 16:38:55): By my calculations I am owed a great deal of money
Martyn (14/02/2023, 16:39:25): what makes you think that Michael?
Michael (14/02/2023, 16:41:09): My actual meter reading is 784 less than your estimate.
Martyn (14/02/2023, 16:41:42): are you at home now and if so, Michael, could you take a photo of it please?
Michael (14/02/2023, 16:41:56): yes
Martyn (14/02/2023, 16:42:51): could you do so, and then I'll send you an invite to up load it.
Michael (14/02/2023, 16:44:33): done, ready
Martyn (14/02/2023, 16:46:03): thnak you Michael.
Martyn (14/02/2023, 16:47:57): the reading we got on the 8th Feb 2023 was 79792, which is lower than the reading your photo is showing now, Michael.
Michael (14/02/2023, 16:49:00): yes, indeed, that is what I would expect - 6 days later I have used some gas, is that unusual?
Michael (14/02/2023, 16:49:48): would you like a photo that I took on the 8th?
Martyn (14/02/2023, 16:50:38): no, Michael. you are confusing me now. are you saying that you have used more electric thatn we are charging you for?
Michael (14/02/2023, 16:52:35): No, to be clear - my latest bill - to Feb 7 used YOUR estimate of 80576.7.
Michael (14/02/2023, 16:54:02): The reading on that I took on the 8th was 79792 which is a lot lower. So I was billed for a lot more GAS than I used. This means the £1,229.94 you charged me is too much.
Martyn (14/02/2023, 16:55:15): 3rd Nov 2022 reading was 79548 and the reading 8th Feb 2023 was 79792. this is 244 units used.
Michael (14/02/2023, 16:55:58): Yes that is correct
Martyn (14/02/2023, 16:56:42): I'm sorry but I don't understand your point.

eventually solved - as Martyn looked at the bill and says he will send me another :)
 
Annualman said:
Just had a great chat with the British Gas Chat - it said it was a real person - Martyn - not so sure: - my colouring

Hi Michael, What can I help you with today?
Michael (14/02/2023, 16:38:36): My recent bill does not nearly reflect my usage
Michael (14/02/2023, 16:38:55): By my calculations I am owed a great deal of money
Martyn (14/02/2023, 16:39:25): what makes you think that Michael?
Michael (14/02/2023, 16:41:09): My actual meter reading is 784 less than your estimate.
Martyn (14/02/2023, 16:41:42): are you at home now and if so, Michael, could you take a photo of it please?
Michael (14/02/2023, 16:41:56): yes
Martyn (14/02/2023, 16:42:51): could you do so, and then I'll send you an invite to up load it.
Michael (14/02/2023, 16:44:33): done, ready
Martyn (14/02/2023, 16:46:03): thnak you Michael.
Martyn (14/02/2023, 16:47:57): the reading we got on the 8th Feb 2023 was 79792, which is lower than the reading your photo is showing now, Michael.
Michael (14/02/2023, 16:49:00): yes, indeed, that is what I would expect - 6 days later I have used some gas, is that unusual?
Michael (14/02/2023, 16:49:48): would you like a photo that I took on the 8th?
Martyn (14/02/2023, 16:50:38): no, Michael. you are confusing me now. are you saying that you have used more electric thatn we are charging you for?
Michael (14/02/2023, 16:52:35): No, to be clear - my latest bill - to Feb 7 used YOUR estimate of 80576.7.
Michael (14/02/2023, 16:54:02): The reading on that I took on the 8th was 79792 which is a lot lower. So I was billed for a lot more GAS than I used. This means the £1,229.94 you charged me is too much.
Martyn (14/02/2023, 16:55:15): 3rd Nov 2022 reading was 79548 and the reading 8th Feb 2023 was 79792. this is 244 units used.
Michael (14/02/2023, 16:55:58): Yes that is correct
Martyn (14/02/2023, 16:56:42): I'm sorry but I don't understand your point.

eventually solved - as Martyn looked at the bill and says he will send me another :)
Click to expand...
iWKad22.jpeg
 
It would seem like most people can't understand basics anymore. Like a mass lobotomy.
 
@Annualman, what sort of meter do you have?

Scottish Power continue to use an estimated reading despite my SMETS1 meter now providing readings.
Loop Energy can tell me what I used yesterday but Scottish Power insist they can’t see it and then guess.
I have now raised a complaint against them to see if they will fix their backend.
 
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