Energy Crisis and Serious Inflation

[Aladeran]

Hi,

I'm back from the Philippines and the last two months have been a blessing about ignoring bad news in the UK.

Now that I'm back, I have seen the typical pinball prices rising again to more ridiculous levels. I have the money for my fourth machine, but I also noticed the warnings from the government about the energy crisis and significant inflation. Pinballs are luxury goods and should be hit fairly fast by the squeeze in household budgets.

Am I wise to sit on my budget and see which way prices will go?

There must be a threshold on pinball prices? At the end, normal folks don't have unlimited budgets, especially when **** hits the fan?

Cheers, Yannick

 

[AlanJ]

flip a coin - no one really knows. nib prices dropped a bit due to £/$ strengthening a bit recently but inflation will see prices continue to rise out of the factory gate. no massive over supply of nib or used stock

 

[DRD]

Pinball prices went up for many reasons ....

Printed money
Lockdowns
More home based leisure, hot tubs, outdoor kitchens ....
etc

Setting aside the war, the current oil shock will devastate the global economy - just as it did in the 1970s.

After rapid rises, watches have come down significantly this year. Crypto the same. Rumours that the used car market (which also rocketed) will Crack as end of term balloon payments will not be made so the finance companies will get hit with lots of stock which will doubtless end up at auction.

Pinballs can't defy gravity. Why not buy a "lesser" model that you would lose less on if it goes down ?

A mate is a manager in major DIY chain distribution centre. They are laying off staff, gently at the moment through natural wastage/ voluntary redundancy etc. He told me that it now feels like the traditional business lull around January has come much earlier.

A school friend runs a traditional town centre bike shop. Jan 2022 he could not get hold of new bikes. Popular models like Bromptons were being flipped - traders buying them in bulk from dealers (say, 6 bikes) at a grey market premium to official sales prices and reselling into Eastern markets.

His main brand saw big manufacturer price increases due to this demand/ loose money/ folk locked down. He finally got stock in the summer and he can't shift it. The manufacturer has now dropped the wholesale price of the bikes he bought, there is no retrospective rebate, and he is left high and dry.

 

[johnwhitfield]

I suspect it might come down to the profile of who is buying pins. Do these people have big mortgages? Are they relatively recession proof in terms of their jobs? Older people are likely to be in a far more secure position economically.

NIB prices aren’t likely to drop. Demand is still outstripping supply in worldwide terms. Where’s the incentive for the big players to cut their profit margins? We might see a few of the smaller companies go bust though as people get more selective.

How big is the NIB market in the UK. ? How many LEs of any games ever make it over here? I can’t imagine ever dropping 13k plus on a toy. To others though presumably this isn’t a deal breaker (I was out after it went past 9 grand and even that seemed insane)

Is the exchange rate likely to significantly increase? Would seem unlikely in the short term. US interest rates are higher and the dollar is seen as a safer currency.

If second hand prices fell by 10-20% I suspect there’s enough people who would swoop in and buy stuff. If I saw a decent WCS for example at 3k I’d grab it. In my heart it’s still a sub 1k game but I know it will never be that price again.

It’s going to be a very uneven recession depending on where you’re starting from. It’s hard to cut back significantly on electricity when so much of it is based on a standing charge.

I might be very wrong. I’ve been assuming there has to be a house price correction for years and this hasn’t happened. I ended up going to Hoxton for the first time last week. It’s absolutely rammed with young people. Out of interest I googled the cost of living there and a 3 bed flat in a butt ugly low rise came up as being on the market for £2.75 million . There’s big money still out there.

 

[Gonzo]

I think desirable pins will stay at a high level.

People will be more picky.

I've taken a massive hit at work last week so I wouldn't buy a pin unless it was absolutely right. I wouldn't take a punt on something just to try it out.

 

[JWG9999]

Seems to me pinball sales are wobbling a bit - less desirable pins aren't getting snapped up anymore.

Maybe prices will stick which would mean in real terms they drop against inflation. If that was the outcome you wouldn't really loose money on a sale, but pins would become more affordable.

I actually think that would be a good thing.

 

[russdx1]

Few games sat in for sale section so i think it is slowing down a bit and like others are saying people are being a little more picky and few more swaps and trades are going on behind closed doors. Prices don’t appear to really be dropping loads though.